Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
